From “Slightly Below-Normal” to “Near-Average”

The Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science has maintained their forecast for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, as “near-average.”

Sea surface temperatures are at near-average and the odds of a weak El Niño during the peak months have “diminished slightly.”


The first forecast of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, released April 4, predicted “…slightly below-normal activity;” 13 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes, with a probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall estimated at “about 90%.”

The June forecast predicted “…approximately average activity.” This term suggested a small increase, but the most noticeable increase was the prediction of the number of hurricanes – which went from five to six.

Current Forecast

There is no difference between June and July’s Forecast Parameters. Predictions are: 14 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes. The probability of a least one major hurricane making landfall on the entire U.S. coastline is at 54%; U.S. East Coast (including Peninsula Florida), 32%; and Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, 31%.

The next forecast will be released on August 5. If El Niño predictions change between now and August, we could expect a much different hurricane season forecast.

Despite forecasts and predictions, it is best to always be prepared. Mobilizing to storm-hit areas is a big task, check out our six tips for storm response prep.

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