Hurricane Season is Approaching
It’s that time of the year again. Early reports and forecasts of how the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season might pan out are available to the public.
Let’s dive right in, shall we?
Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science’s Tropical Meteorology Project released its Extended Range Forecast on April 2. In that forecast, they declare 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
A reminder that the 1981-2010 average for each is: 12.1 (NS), 6.4 (H), and 2.7 (MH). The department’s 2019 April forecast did not land on numbers quite that high above the average.
CSU’s 2020 April forecast also comes with a 69% probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the entire continental U.S. coastline. The U.S. East Coast (including the Peninsula of Florida), 45%; and Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX., 44%.
So, based on the gathered information, for now we can expect that the 2020 season will have activity above the average. The next CSU forecast will be released on June 4.
The Weather Company is predicting 18 total named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes; which suggests a far-above-average season.
UPDATE: CSU’s June 4 Extended Range Forecast included the term, “well-above average.” They increased the number of hurricanes to 9; and as for the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the coastal areas, each one increased by one percent (now 70%, 46%, and 45%).
UPDATE: CSU’s July 7 Extended Range Forecast increased only the named storms – that number is now 20. Probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. reflects what was stated in the April forecast, above, (69%, 45%, 44%).